From the Editor - December 1995
David M. Kalman

Predictions '96

As you read this in December, the New Year is just around the corner. This gives me an opportunity to prognosticate on the events -- both large and small -- that will touch our lives in the coming months. We can revisit this column next December to review my accuracy!

All Roads Lead to NT

Windows 95 will prove to be an interim product. I attended a luncheon on March 21, 1995 at the Sheraton Palace (San Francisco), where a member of the audience asked speaker Bill Gates, "Why does Microsoft have two operating systems, Windows 95 and Windows NT?" Gates answered that if every computer had at least 16MB of memory, Microsoft would need only one operating system: Windows NT. This leads me to believe that Windows 95 will have a short life cycle (perhaps 18 months); it suggests that corporate users should consider skipping Windows 95 completely, moving directly to Windows NT Workstation for strategic applications. Of course, I don't think I'm revealing any secrets here. A recent survey by the Software Productivity Group (Westborough, Mass.) asked customers which client operating systems they expected to adopt within the next two years. While 64 percent indicated they would be using Windows 95, 50 percent indicated they would be using Windows NT. This survey did not count the use of Windows NT on servers. Windows NT Workstation is slated for a UI upgrade early in 1996 that will give it the Windows 95 look-and-feel.

Silicon Apple

Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) will merge with Apple Computer to reestablish Apple as the graphics workstation for the rest of us. Leveraging its strength in 3D graphics and workstation design, SGI will gain desktop market share. It will also reestablish the line between typical "office" PCs (running Windows) and professional workstations dedicated to value-added applications such as publishing, video production, and visual data analysis. As a bonus, acquiring Apple gives SGI a channel for futuristic, consumer-oriented ultralight computing devices.

In Play

Some companies will be acquired. In my June 1994 column, I tried and failed to mate acquirers and acquirees, so I'm a bit gun-shy about predicting who's next. The truth is, I was close. Lotus didn't acquire Powersoft. Instead, IBM acquired Lotus and Sybase acquired Powersoft. Oracle didn't acquire Borland, although it still could. Instead of predicting mergers, I'll just recommend a few: Gupta Corp. should acquire CenterView Software, which makes Choreo. Choreo accelerates client/server development with Visual Basic or Gupta's own SQLWindows by automating data navigation. Informix Software should, in turn, acquire Gupta Corp. to give the DBMS giant a best-of-breed development environment and emerging component-based technology. AT&T should acquire Novell and accelerate the global networking initiative that the two companies announced earlier this year. Novell recently disgorged its UnixWare business (selling it to The Santa Cruz Operation). Now, Novell has one big piece of nasty business remaining: to unload its WordPerfect applications business. What were they thinking?

The Internet in Space

In 1996, look for data delivery via the Digital Satellite System (DSS), direct to a PC on your desk or in your home. With the small (18-inch) dish and a PC adapter, you may soon be able to take advantage of 1.5mbps (megabits-per-second) transfer rates to access all kinds of digital information. And you thought the cable companies had a virtual monopoly!

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